We are currently in the midst of primary election season where the winner(s) of the primaries will move on to the general election. Most states have what is called a closed primary, where voters can only choose between candidates of their own preferred party. Conversely, there is what is referred to as an open primary, where voters pick between all candidates regardless of party preference and the top two move on to the general election. Regardless of the primary system used, there are clear methods of determining who the winners of each will be.
Method 1: Polling
This method is the most prominent indicator of public perception of candidates from the general population. Sources such as fivethirtyeight and RealClearPolitics have easy to read and compiled polls from a variety of sources to demonstrate which way the public is leaning. However, the drawbacks are that not all polls are trustworthy and the way a question is asked can strongly influence the respondents answer. Most importantly, polls are expensive to conduct so, while they are helpful in determining bigger races closer to election day, they are rarely used during the primary season.
Method 2: Track Fundraising:
A study that conducted the 2020 race for the house of representatives determined that 87% of the victors had outraised their competitors. This may be in part due to finance enabling candidates to have more name recognition. The more name recognition a candidate has, the more likely they are to win their primary. With more funds available to promote TV ads and other advertisements, the more money a candidate is able to preclude, the more a candidate can get name recognition and win the nomination then election. Funds raised by candidates for an election is public knowledge and can be found at FEC.gov for federal positions and your state government website for local races. This knowledge is required by law and can be used as a good indicator of who will win the election.
A drawback of this method is that it doesn’t take into account dark money, money that is spent on attack ads or other promotional material that is not financed by the candidate themselves but rather political action committees (PACs). This money is not as regulated in the government and it makes it more difficult to trace exactly how much money a candidate has in their campaign. For this reason, be sure to look at all groups working towards the election, not just the campaign themselves.
Method 3: Party Identification
This method is more common knowledge and does not apply closed primaries. Regardless of the position being sought after, 80% of voters during the 2020 election voted straight-ticket, where the voter voted their preferred party all the way down the ballot. This means that if a district leans heavily Democratic or Republican, the winner of the general election is most likely going to reflect this. This can only be used to predict the general election but also can help predict the winners of an open primary as well.
In an open primary, all candidates, regardless of party identification, run against one another and the top two advance to the general election. In this scenario, one Republican and one Democrat are likely to be in the top two even though it is an open primary. The reasoning behind this is that if there is only one option for Republicans in a heavily Democratic area, all the Republicans will vote for the same person, even if they don’t know who they are, based purely off of party identification. Then, with the Democratic voters split amongst their options, a republican will inevitably end up in the top two. The same results can be expected the other way around. This phenomenon can help explain some of the results that appeared during California’s open primary on June 7th. It is important to note that these candidates are unlikely to win the general election even though they may have won the primary.
Method 4: Incumbency Advantage
A study on the US House of Representatives 2018 race, found that incumbents won their seats 91% of the time. This is due in part to name recognition and people already seeing them in the role. Additionally, the incumbent will start off with a stronger fundraising campaign and endorsements from their friends already made in office. A combination of these factors makes them hard to beat.
Method 5: News/Media
The newspapers are constantly referring to new policy positions or scandals. If a new one emerges, this could strongly sway opinions about a particular candidate and could override any preexisting notions. If one candidate seems to be doing well in the polls and fundraising but then a new scandal emerges, the negative coverage could undo all progress made. Therefore no method is perfect due to rapid changes and the news/media must be monitored in order to have an up-to-date picture of election standings.
A combination of all of these factors contribute to a winning campaign. Despite the relative ease of finding out information about a candidate and their following, the public is often unpredictable. It’s important to remember that a voter’s decision is often not after weeks upon weeks of consideration but rather a snap decision based on one hours of one day a year.
This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.
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