For decades, crime has been falling in the United States, but 2020 saw that trend reverse. Crime, and especially violent crime, rose significantly last year, to a degree not seen in recent memory. And, as with any broad socio-cultural trend, various explanations have been put forward to explain this troubling phenomenon.
One of the most obvious potential causes is, of course, the pandemic. In January, NPR ran a piece quoting New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio placing blame for the increase in violent crime in his city on COVID, as well as testimony that the rising murder rates “was happening in the early stages of the pandemic”, then saw upticks both “in the early stages of summer” and later on, when “some of the financial assistance started to wear off.” In this analysis, the lack of “face-to-face contact…among service providers and…[those] who are most likely to both commit these offenses and be the victims of them” is the crucial variable in explaining why so many violent altercations have gone unprevented.
Other interpretations focus on more long-term factors, such as that put forward by sociologist Patrick Sharkey, whose interview with the Atlantic was published in March. In Sharkey’s estimation, the pandemic itself wasn’t the only culprit, but rather may have simply contributed and worsened an already-present problem. His main argument “is that in areas where communities go through periods of disinvestment, and where institutions break down, people feel like they’re on their own,” which tends to increase the crime rate. While COVID lockdowns would have obviously increased the sense of isolation, Sharkey is perhaps correct to note that the situation in many places before the disease reached our nation is likely to have played some role.
He then goes on to comment on the final, and perhaps the most politically charged, explanation for the rise in violent crime: the movement to defund the police and the public demonstrations and riots following the murder of George Floyd. In this matter, Sharkey makes several comments, saying that “police often pull back” after large-scale public backlashes as the public become hypercritical of their every action. He also notes that the decline in the perceived “legitimacy” of law enforcement may have led some to be less “willing to reach out to the police for help and less willing to cooperate.”
It’s clear to many, however, that in such a time when violent crime is spiking, removing funding from the police is probably not the soundest policy. The New York Times published an article earlier today describing the situation in L.A, where 8% of the police department’s budget was slashed in response to mass demonstrations last summer, but after murder spiked an astounding 36%, the city approved an increase to that same budget in order to hire 250 new officers.
While all these explanations are likely true to some degree and, together, paint a bleak picture for the prospects of maintaining law and order, there is perhaps a silver lining in that many of these proposed causes were largely temporary. The financial and social distress caused by pandemic lockdowns is easing as people get vaccinated and states open up. Police were subject to an incredibly high degree of scrutiny, mistrust, and rage as a result of activist activity last summer and likely pulled back and were less engaged in communities because of it. With the conviction of the officer involved in the George Floyd case and the simple passage of time, it’s not altogether foolish to believe that the situation may be on the mend. And, now confronted with a clear crisis, cities are beginning to see the dangers in decreasing funds to law enforcement. One might hope that, with all these factors, the United States might, this year, return to the old norm of seeing violent crime drop every twelve months instead of rise, and might again enjoy the safety of living in a nation where the law is supreme.
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