The world population is expected to surpass 8 billion on November 15, 2022. It was 2.5 billion seventy years ago, in 1952, and by 2092, it will have expanded by another 2.5 billion over present levels. However, overpopulation is not what people typically think it is. Even though there are currently more births than deaths, the birth rate has declined over time, which means that as the years go by there is a growing elderly population and a shrinking young population. Low and declining fertility rates are driving worldwide population reduction. In 2019, more than 40% of the world’s population lived in nations with replacement rates of 2.1 children per woman or below; by 2021, this proportion had risen to 60%.
A growing number of young people are opting out of having children specifically because they are worried about what life would be like for their offspring in a hot and chaotic world. Such concerns may be more intense these days, but they are not new, human overpopulation has been a major concern for the environmental movement for decades. And, while population increase does have a part in climate change (it’s called anthropogenic warming for a reason), it’s not as significant as we may think, according to Sigal Samuel’s 2020 Future Perfect piece. Elon Musk recently posted on Twitter “Population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming”. Consumption of the resources that cause carbon emissions is more important to climate change than population increase alone, and those resources are mostly utilized by a very small number of rich individuals worldwide. Change those consumption habits, through a combination of increased efficiency and new carbon-free technology, and there will be enough space to continue raising the population without overburdening the earth.
Slower population growth may paradoxically make that shift more difficult. Fewer infants result in aging countries, which slows economic development and inhibits innovation. It can be more difficult to gain support for future-oriented policies in a society with fewer children; just look at the US government, with its 79-year-old president and octogenarian legislative and judicial branches. To shift the current pattern of declining population growth, governments and society must focus on the issues disincentivizing young adults from having children.
This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.
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