The author Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in his book about events known as black swans, these events are so rare they are impossible to predict. When these black swans appear they tend to be either catastrophic or extremely favorable. These events are explained in hindsight as if they were actually predictable. Some examples are the rise of the internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the terrorist attack on September 11.
In relation to the black swan concept, Taleb talks about our inability to accurately predict the future. To support his argument he provides the Turkey analogy. A Turkey in his first 1,000 days of life will be led to believe that he is God since humans so earnestly care for him and generously feed him. Yet, contrary to his perception of reality, on his 1,001st day he is killed to be eaten during Thanksgiving. In this day and age, there is so much information available that we can prove anything we believe to be true even if in reality is it false. The turkey took what he knew, he had been treated with care for 1,000 days, and concluded that humans saw him as God.
This book challenges our confidence in what we know and suggest that there is not much we can do to prepare for these black swans besides being aware of the possibility of their occurrence. Those who allegedly see these black swans before they occur are no less ignorant than those who do not make such allegation. Taleb does argue that you can expose your self to the positive black swans or also known as serendipity. Exposing yourself to new positive experiences to allow these rare but good events to strike your life.
This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.
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