Ever since mid July, the Republican lead over the Democrats over the House majority has dwindled in terms of both percentage chance and projected majority. Previous conventional wisdom held that Republicans would comfortably take the House majority due to the Republicans effectively being able to lay inflation, international unrest, a struggling economy, and lack of legislative results at the feet of the Biden Administration and the Democratic majority in both the House and Senate.
However, ever since the overturning of Roe vs Wade, the Democratic party has rallied to not only integrate the controversial decision into its campaign rhetoric, but also recently delivered on major results such as the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s student loan forgiveness executive order, and Biden’s leadership during America’s navigation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
Projections as of October 6th from 538 show Republicans have a 69% chance of taking the House majority, down from its peak at 88% in mid-July. More significantly, their projected majority total is down from 238-197 in mid-June to 225-210.
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