The recent midterm elections were a surprise to many political observers as what was predicted to be a so-called “red wave” with the Republican party regaining a substantial majority in the House and Senate turned out to be a mediocre showing. While Republicans are on track to regain a slim House majority, it is well under the projected 20+ seat majority. Senate races were also below expectations with the only meaningful Republican win being in Ohio with J.D. Vance’s victory over Tim Ryan. Other high profile races such as Blake Masters in Arizona and Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania ended in defeat while Herschel Walker in Georgia will have to compete in a runoff election against incumbent Rafael Warnock, with many predicting Warnock’s re-election as Democrats historically have more success in runoff elections and the absence of Gov. Brian Kemp on the ballot means the absence of Walker benefitting from the ‘coattail effect’.
In contrast, Republicans in Florida had a dominating performance with Gov. Ron DeSantis garnering a 1.5 million vote victory, Republicans flipping several House seats, and minority groups (especially Hispanics) shifting in favor of Republicans. These results are in contrast to previous years where Florida was considered a purple swing state. It now appears that Florida Republicans have successfully transformed the state into solid red. It will be interesting to observe how Republicans react to Republicans’ lackluster performance nationally in contrast to Florida and whether they will use DeSantis and his leadership as a blueprint for a national strategy come 2024.
CIMA Law Group Blog 