Texas has had a long history as a red state. Since the 1976 election, when Democratic President Carter won 51 to 48, Texas has voted Republican in all of the following presidential elections. However, while Texas seems like an ideal Republican state, it has not always been this way and has recently been viewed as a potential swing state. This rhetoric was popularized in the 2020 elections when margin between the Republican and Democratic vote was 5.5 percentage points. This is compared to a 9-point margin in 2016 and a 15-point margin in 2012.
This new characteristic of Texas politics has little to do with Republicans moving left on the political spectrum and more to do with the changing demographics of the state. Large cities Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and El Paso have a lot of democratic voters and these areas have grown rapidly in the past few years. Moreover, many long-time city residents have moved out to areas like Fort-Worth and have turned the suburbs less red. Right now, political scientists predict that if the state continues to shift by three points every election cycle, the state will be Democratic by 2028 latest. However, mid-size cities and rural areas remain unchanged, making moving to the left difficult for Texas.
Moreover, voter mobilization has also become more effective in Texas. Asian-Americans, African- Americans, and Hispanics have all become more mobilized since 2016 and their turn out has shown that there is a large percentage of eligible voters who do not vote in Texas. With all these changes, Texas will be an interesting state to follow in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.
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