Gasoline to Winter Fire

While Russia continues their hot war in the beseiged country of Ukraine, they must fight on another front– a cold war sparked with gasoline against Europe. 

The European Union has recently finalized a deal on regulating emergency gas cuts this upcoming winter despite energy cut-offs from Putin. 

The surge in natural gas prices has already adversely affected the currency of the Euro, falling 0.85% compared to the US dollar. Yet, the EU remains confident in facing Russia’s looming winter without backing down. 

There are a few exemptions to this regulation however– states not directly linked to Europe’s gas pipelines such as Ireland, Cyprus and Malta will be allowed an exemption; along with the Baltic nations not plugged into Europe’s electricity grid whom are also reliant on foreign gas. Additionally, countries can petition to be exempt if they reach certain gas storage goals, have seen an increase in 8% in the past year, or if their dependence is deemed too critical. 

It may seem that this is far from a form of warfare, but it is in actuality a highly risky one. Germany has already warned that a reduction of 15-20% on gas reliance is necessary to avoid major gas shortages in critical junctures such as hospitals. Because Europe and Russia (along with the entrie globe) are so interconnected, it is necessary for the EU to train itself to be less dependent– to find alternative energy sources or find the means to run on less gas. 

But this is easier said than done. It is a battle wedged by two opponents who already have their swords stuck in one another– the question is how much of the blade can be pulled out before it becomes fatal? 

According to the IMF, an embargo from Russia would not only surge inflation, it would ignite recessions in Central and Eastern Europe– particularly in Germany.

There are alternrtaives– liquid gas from Asian markets being redirected by the United States can aid Europe; as can a new pipeline opened in Azerbaijan and flowed through Turkey. Similarly, Putin won’t have a market to sell his oil to, lest he open a pipeline through Siberia into Russia which would be both costly and absurd. 

Nevertheless, winter warfare is on the horizon. It looms cold and unforgiving, eternal night that would surround the continent in pitch darkness. The only light to be seen in the distance– a flame, singular and desolate, burning off the gasoline both sides seek to extinguish for the other. 

This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.