Mounting pressure against the Kremlin continues as the European Union agrees to block more than two-thirds of Russia’s oil imports. This action, compounded with the EU’s decision to cut Russia’s largest bank from the global SWIFT economic system, brings heavy consequences to Putin as his forces move through the Donbass. But is it too late?
When the war broke out, I recall global conversations circling on the points of SWIFT and other more crippling sanctions on Russia in order to prevent the volume of aggression from exploding across the country. Now, Putin’s forces have largely captured the Donbass region in the east after three months of brutal fighting, pillaging, and death. It seems now in retrospect that these recent acts of punishment upon Russia were not swift enough themselves and should have been done long ago.
Yet, it is important to consider the nuance of making decisions on the world stage. Russia, being a nuclear power with an unstable leadership, must be looked at not just presently but in the context of future actions as well.
There is a concept in international relations called the “security dilemma”, that as one actor arms themselves in protection from the other, their opponent will match in response. This leads to both actors having to outbid themselves defensively, leading to a potentially deadlier outcome should one pull the trigger.
This has been the attitude the world has taken to dealing with Putin, especially given his capabilities to wage war beyond the regions of Ukraine and the reason why it has taken this long to issue such economically devastating sanctions such as cutting off SWIFT.
There’s no better example of this than the recent shipment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine by the United States, in which it was assured by Secretary of State Blinken and President Joe Biden that no missiles capable of targeting Russia would be sent. At first glance, this doesn’t seem fair– Russia has been repeatedly striking at Ukraine from sea and air. Yet, if the United States were to supply weapons that target Russia, Putin’s response would have to be in greater magnitude– weapons that strike beyond Ukraine and into NATO countries.
This is the game that must be played. As much as the west is holding back when they can end the suffering of the Ukrainian people, a full ushering of force would only be met with a world war. It is through strategic release of weapons and military aid that Ukraine can be helped along with economic and cultural affliction.
It is true– the only way to win is not to play. But, we are a global community that must uphold the norms we’ve preserved since the end of the Second World War. This means playing a risky balancing act that could be too late or right on time, but it’s the best way to ensure we don’t lose a lot more.
This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.
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