Will There Be a Red Wave in November?

History says yes

Once again, it is the election year where the voters decide who will be making our country’s decisions for the next two years. There are all 435 House seats up for grabs as well as 35 Senate seats.

For the past 100 years, the party opposite of the president has gained a net of 25 seats in the House of Representatives on the first midterm election cycle of that president. With the balance in the House being 224 Democrats to 210 Republicans and 7 vacancies, the possibility that the Republicans will retake the House is probable given historical trends. 

However, historical trends are not always correct and the redistricting that occurred after the census complicates theories. In 2020, there was the once-a-decade nationwide census that reapportioned the number of house members to which each state is entitled to. This led to several states having to redraw their districts to accommodate a new district or disassemble an older one. The redistricting process often creates seats without incumbents or forces a race between two members who are currently both serving. With these newly competitive races appearing, there surely will be new faces appearing in the next congress that may either intensify or weaken the historical trend. 

Of course, history is not the only teller of what will come in the next election. Recent events such as Dobbs. v. Jackson Women’s Health draft opinion leak that intends to overturn Roe v. Wade and the renewed movements demanding more gun regulations will have an impact. According to an NPR poll, 64% of Americans did not support overturning Roe v. Wade, and 60% support strict gun control measures. These opinions favor the Democratic base more than Republicans and may sway voters that enter the voting booth on election day. 

However, President Biden currently stands with a 41% approval rating which historically will not serve him well come the midterms. The cause of this low approval rating is due in part to the ongoing war in Ukraine, high gas prices, and rapid inflation. These ongoing issues are pertinent to the average American with the economy always seen as one of the highest priorities Americans have. When it comes to the ballot box in November, abortion and gun control may not seem as important as the voters’ pocketbook and may harm the Democrats. 

It is important to note that the trend of one party gaining 25 seats in the House does not carry over to the Senate. In fact, despite losing the house in 2018, Republicans gained two seats in the Senate. Currently, with the Senate deadlocked 50-50, if the Republicans are even able to gain one seat, the balance of power shifts widely. 

All being said, November is a long time away in terms of politics and anything could sway the voters’ decision. Only time can tell. If history is doomed to repeat itself, a red wave is expected unless the Democrats can convince the public that their issues are more important for securing our future as a nation.

This blog post is part of the CIMA Law Group blog. If you are located in Arizona and are seeking legal services, CIMA Law Group specializes in Immigration Law, Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, and Government Relations.